PAC-Bayes Theory: A Bridge Between Statistical Learning and Bayesian Methods PAC-Bayes ( Probably Approximately Correct Bayesian ) theory provides generalization guarantees for machine learning models by combining PAC learning (Valiant, 1984) and Bayesian inference . Unlike classical VC theory, PAC-Bayes accounts for prior knowledge and posterior distributions over hypotheses, making it especially useful for modern ML (e.g., neural networks, stochastic algorithms). 1. Core Idea PAC-Bayes bounds quantify how well a randomized predictor (e.g., a Bayesian model or stochastic neural network) generalizes from training data to unseen data. The key insight: Prior ( P P ) : A fixed distribution over hypotheses before seeing data (e.g., initial neural network weights). Posterior ( Q Q ) : A learned distribution over hypotheses after training (e.g., noisy/approximate Bayesian inference). Bound : The g...